afghanitan indiia new take

The only thing Indian military can do in Afghanistan is to strengthen the Taliban and its ideological back bone.

Taliban after the death of Mullha Omar in 2013 (news only came out after 2 years) is in fractions mainly between  key figures like these.

a) Mullah Muhammad Rasul

b) Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansoor (current Emir)

c) Mullah Najibullha ( Fidai Mahaz -a group believes that Mullha Omar has been killed by Mansoor for succession )

d) Abdul Qayyum Zakir (Talibans ex-military commander ) who supports Mullha Omar's son to be the next Emir ( he said to be under house arrest by the Pakistani authorities due to his opposition regarding peace talks)

ISIS

The emergence of ISIS in Afghanistan as an alternative for various Jihadi fractions also said to have put a lot of pressure to these splinter groups to prove that they means business. 'Peace talk' means weakness in warlord circles at least so whom ever from the above group starts a peace talk with the present Afghan government will be seen as a traitor by the other groups

When Taliban is fragmented with out doubt there is going to be less control over them  for the Pakistanis , the leverage they enjoy with the Americans and the say in the Afghanistan internal affairs is due to the control the Pakistanis enjoy over the Taliban.

There is a four way talk going on as we speak between the US China Afghanistan and Pakistan in order to involve the Taliban in to governance. Pakistan brings china in to it as a strategic strength on diplomacy.

Pakistan would like the participants to reduce the impact of anti-Pakistan elements in Kabul, and persuade the Afghan government to be less enthusiastic about its relations with India.

(Taliban's political office in Doha ,Qatar)

Abbas Stanekzai (right hand man of current emir Mansoor) is appointed as the head of the political office in Qatar showing that the main Taliban going towards a peace process.

This is the backdrop in which India trying to gain some ground.

The Indian Role

India's assistance to Afghanistan has been focused mainly on education, agriculture, institution-building and other areas that benefit the people of our war-torn country.

India has provided Afghanistan more than $2bn in aide mainly for projects in power, roads, agriculture, and education.

India has provided thousands of scholarships to Afghan students and training grants for Afghan civil servants in the past few years - most of whom have returned to Afghanistan and are an important part of the current critical mass in the country.

India is building a major hydropower dam at the cost of nearly $200m in western Afghanistan.

India delivered three Russia-made Mi-25 attack helicopters to Afghanistan in December last year

(PM Narendra Modi walking in to the new Afghan  $ 90 million parliament building funded entirely by India)

Here you can see India using its soft power very well to win the hearts of Afghans so that Pakistan wont control Afghanistan's foreign policy when it comes to India.

Pak- Afghan relations in Ghanis presidency

From the moment he assumed office, Ghani endeavored to maintain closer contacts and ties with Pakistan's military establishment.

Sending Afghan cadets for military training to Pakistan

Allowing Pakistani intelligence officers to interrogate detainees in Afghan detention facilities.

Conducting military operations on Afghan soil at the request of Pakistan's military.

Some sources say Kabul has also allowed Pakistani security forces to conduct "joint military operations" in the eastern parts of Afghanistan (Nangharhar, Kunar)

Military hardware requests

Afghan governments wish list to  New Delhi contains light artillery guns, helicopters and heavy vehicles but they always rejected the idea of Indian military presence in the country.

On this back drop you can see how India and Pakistan fights a proxy war in Afghanistan ,putting boots on the ground will inevitably strengthen the Taliban. The best way forward is to influence trade, infra structure development and aid like the scholarships we provide to Afghan students so that a climate is developed with in the country that anti-India narrative wont hold with in the general public. We are on the right course. The aggressive foreign policy posturing will endanger what we have done so far.

India has managed to achieve so much with so little (in comparison with what Americans have spend on Afghanistan around $2.4 trillion) in diplomatic circles there is a strong respect for us. Its is glad to see that Modi is pursing the same goals as the previous governments ignoring the political differences.